天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究     

柳志慧  王式功  尚可政  孔德兵  赵文婧  王昀 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(2):43-49

利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。  相似文献   

天山山区水汽和云水含量的空间分布特征     

石晓兰  杨青  姚俊强  韩雪云  李建刚 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(2):50-56

利用欧洲数值预报中心(ECMWF)发布的第一代全球分辨率ERA-Interim再分析数据,分析了1979～2014年天山山区水汽含量和云水含量的空间分布特征。结果显示：(1)水汽含量的高值中心出现在伊犁河谷地区,中心值域在10—11kg m-2之间,低值区位于天山中部的巴音布鲁克附近,中心值域在5—6kg m-2之间;夏季水汽含量最丰富,在8—11kg m-2之间。(2)云液水含量的高值区出现在博格达山北坡,而云冰水含量的高值区在西天山海拔较高的托木尔峰地区,低值区均在伊犁河谷等海拔低的地区;夏季云液水含量、云冰水含量均呈减少趋势,云冰水含量较云液水减少的更为明显,下降速率为0.28kg kg-1/10a;(3)垂直分布上,云液水含量在600hpa左右的高空出现高值区,中心最大值为10kg kg-1;云冰水含量的高值区则出现在500hpa左右的高空,为11kg kg-1;在对流层大气中云冰水含量值远大于云液水,且云冰水发展的高度较云液水更高。  相似文献   

中国植物物候变化特征及其对降水变化的响应          下载免费PDF全文

赖欣  范广洲 《高原山地气象研究》2016,36(3):44-52

利用1963~1988年中国木本草本植物物候观测资料,运用趋势分析和相关分析方法,研究了26年中国20个物候站点植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期物候变化特征及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:1963~1988年我国植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期均以推迟趋势为主;春季始展叶期、始花期,东北、华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;秋季始落叶(黄枯)期华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;1980年前后的物候期变化与1963~1988年的变化相同;春季物候期平均值差异多在-3~6天,秋季物候期平均值差异多在-10~10天;我国植物的始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期对于之前月份的累积降水量有不同程度的响应,物候期对该物候期前1月至前3月的累积降水量响应最为明显;我国春季物候期与降水量以正相关为主,秋季物候期与降水量则以负相关为主。   相似文献   

气候变化情景下黄淮海区域热量资源及夏玉米温度适宜度   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李萌  申双和  吕厚荃  韩艳  褚荣浩  沙修竹 《大气科学学报》2016,39(3):391-399

利用黄淮海区域90个站点1971—2000年逐日气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的未来气候变化情景(A1B)下区域气候模式(Reg CM3)模拟的黄淮海区域1951—2070年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,结合夏玉米主要生育期对温度的需求,构建了黄淮海区域的温度适宜度和变异系数模型,并对1951—2070年黄淮海区域热量资源、夏玉米主要生育期的温度适宜度及其变异系数的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1)黄淮海区域≥10℃积温和80%保证率下日平均温度≥10℃的初日均呈现由北向南依次增加的趋势,且随时间推移,分别呈增加和提前趋势。2)黄淮海区域夏玉米播种—出苗期的温度适宜度随时间整体呈逐渐上升的变化趋势、其变异系数随时间呈降—升—降的变化趋势;出苗—抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间呈先降后升的变化趋势、其变异系数呈降—升—降—升的变化趋势;抽雄—成熟期的温度适宜度空间上呈现2010年前北低南高、未来情景下中部低四周高的分布趋势,时间上呈2010年前稳定、未来情景下先降后升的变化趋势,其变异系数呈相反变化趋势;3)黄淮海区域夏玉米温度适宜度及其变异系数从播种—出苗期—出苗—抽雄期—抽雄—成熟期均呈反相位的变化关系。  相似文献   

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较     

姜颖  陆尔 《气象科学》2016,36(3):382-388

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。  相似文献   

全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究     

梁顺林  唐世浩  张杰  徐冰  程洁  程晓  宫鹏  贾坤  江波  李爱农  刘素红  邱红  肖志强  谢先红  杨军  杨俊刚  姚云军  于贵瑞  张晓通  赵祥 《遥感学报》2016,20(6):1491-1499

科技部在"十三五"期间部署的国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项资助了"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。  相似文献   

Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yue-li Chen  De-hui Chen  Ze-chun Li  Jun-bao Huang 《山地科学学报》2016,13(10):1735-1745

Rainfall-triggered landslides have posed significant threats to human lives and property each year in China. This paper proposed a meteorologicalgeotechnical early warning system GRAPES-LFM(GRAPES: Global and Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System; LFM: Landslide Forecast Model),basing on the GRAPES model and the landslide predicting model TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-Stability Model) for predicting rainfall-triggered landslides.This integrated system is evaluated in Dehua County,Fujian Province, where typhoon Bilis triggered widespread landslides in July 2006. The GRAPES model runs in 5 km×5 km horizontal resolution, and the initial fields and lateral boundaries are provided by NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL(Final) Operational Global Analysis data. Quantitative precipitation forecasting products of the GRAPES model are downscaled to 25 m×25 m horizontal resolution by bilinear interpolation to drive the TRIGRS model. Results show that the observed areas locate in the high risk areas, and the GRAPES-LFM model could capture about 74% of the historical landslides with the rainfall intense 30mm/h. Meanwhile, this paper illustrates the relationship between the factor of safety(FS) and different rainfall patterns. GRAPES-LFM model enables us to further develop a regional, early warning dynamic prediction tool of rainfall-induced landslides.  相似文献   

The modeled atmospheric and oceanic response to the South China Sea SST anomaly     

Xiande Zhu  Lixin Wu  Jun Zhou  Jianjun Gao 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2016,15(5):741-750

The sensitivity of the global atmospheric and oceanic response to sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) throughout the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Forced by a warming SST, the experiment explicitly demonstrates that the responses of surface air temperature (SAT) and SST exhibit positive anomalous center over SCS and negative anomalous center over the Northern Pacific Ocean (NPO). The atmospheric response to the warm SST anomalies is characterized by a barotropical anomaly in middle-latitude, leading to a weak subtropical high in summer and a weak Aleutian low in winter. Accordingly, Indian monsoon and eastern Asian monsoon strengthen in summer but weaken in winter as a result of wind convergence owing to the warm SST. It is worth noting that the abnormal signals propagate poleward and eastward away in the form of Rossby Waves from the forcing region, which induces high pressure anomaly. Owing to action of the wind-driven circulation, an anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation is induced with a primary southward current in the upper ocean. An obvious cooling appears over the North Pacific, which can be explained by anomalous meridional cold advection and mixing as shown in the analysises of heat budget and other factors that affect SST.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar     

Zin Mie Mie Sein  Xiefei Zhi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(6):469

Observed summer (May–October) rainfall in Myanmar for the period 1981–2010 was used to investigate the interannual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar. Empirical orthogonal function, the sequential Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis, and singular value decomposition (SVD) were deployed in the study. Results from spectral analysis showed that the variability of rainfall over Myanmar exhibits a 2- to 6-year cycle. An abrupt change in rainfall over the country was noted in 1992. There was a notable increasing rainfall trend from 1989. After the sudden change, the mean rainfall increased by 36.1 mm, compared with the mean rainfall before the sudden change, and was associated with a rise in temperature of about 0.2 °C. An increase in heavy rainfall days was observed from the early 1990s to 2010. IOD and ENSO play an important role in the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over Myanmar. The covariability between rainfall over Myanmar and Indian Ocean SST generally suggests that a positive IOD mode is associated with suppressed rainfall in the central and northern parts of Myanmar. During a negative IOD mode, nearly the whole Myanmar experiences enhanced rainfall, which is associated with devastating socioeconomic impacts. The covariability between the rainfall over Myanmar and the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in the first and second SVD modes was dominated by warming in the east and central Pacific—an El Niño-like pattern—resulting in dry conditions in central Myanmar.  相似文献   

黑龙江省两次温带气旋暴雪过程对比分析     

周显伟  赵宇  祝玉梅  娄德君 《冰川冻土》2018,40(6):1195-1206

利用多种资料对黑龙江省两次由江淮气旋和蒙古气旋合并引发的暴雪过程的水汽、热动力条件和中尺度特征进行了对比分析。结果表明：（1）两次暴雪过程都发生在北支槽和短波槽合并、北支槽北部有冷涡的背景下,850 hPa上低涡合并促使江淮气旋和蒙古气旋合并;气旋合并后,低空急流为降雪提供了充足水汽,强暖平流使气旋爆发性发展,导致降雪加强。（2）两次降雪过程都表现出逗点云系的合并发展,"1211 "暴雪过程中高层形成涡旋偏西,700 hPa低涡东部偏南风引导气旋北上西折,低空急流和地形共同作用使暖湿空气强烈辐合上升,产生对流云,暴雪发生在A类逗点云系的头部,降雪强度大,范围广;"1412"暴雪过程高空槽低涡位置偏东,700 hPa低涡东部西南风始终引导气旋向东北方向移动,近地面层具有冷垫,暴雪主要发生在B类气旋逗点云系头部西侧中低云团中,降雪范围和强度较"1211"过程小。（3）低层（0.3 km）冷空气侵入和中高层（5.5 km）转为偏北风对判断降雪开始和结束有很好的表征意义。（4）冷涡前部强高压脊使冷涡移动缓慢,从而延长了降水的持续时间,气旋移动路径与高压脊伸展方向密切相关。  相似文献